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The devices themselves
The devices themselves
I wasn't alone. Between 1997 and 2002, the number of American mobile phone subscribers jumped from 55 million to 141 million. What happened [link widoczny dla zalogowanych]? Sure, technology was part of the story. Cell phones kept getting smaller, cheaper, and better; by the turn of the century they offered good enough coverage and call quality that you could use them pretty much anywhere. But all gadgets keep getting better—and even if they were cheaper than before, getting a cell phone typically required a commitment of at least several hundred dollars a year, so it was by no means cheap. Why did nearly everyone suddenly decide that mobile phones were worth this cost? The big reason, I think, was the network effect. As more people got cell phones, cell phones became more useful—there were more people to call,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], more people to text, and more people who began to assume that you, too, had a cell phone. At some point there were enough mobile phones that the cultural attitudes about the device flipped. People stopped thinking you were a self-important schmuck if you carried a mobile phone. You were a self-important schmuck if you didn't.
Over the next few weeks I'll be writing a series of articles on the future of technology. This week, I'm looking at mobile devices—not just phones but also tablets, music players, video cameras, and the other tiny computers that seem certain to represent the next computing frontier. I'm obviously interested in how these gadgets will evolve technically—their physical design, their user interfaces, their processing power, battery life, and software. But I think it's just as important to think about how society will morph to accommodate these mobile devices—which ones we'll accept, which ones we'll reject, what we'll use them for, and how well we'll tolerate their interruptions and annoyances. The future of mobile tech won't be just a [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] story of shrinking computers. It's also a story of how we, as a culture, respond to all these shrinking computers.
But let's start with the devices themselves. The most basic question about tomorrow's mobile gadgets is one that we're struggling to answer today: How many different devices will we have? At the moment, we have a lot of different tools with overlapping functionality. You can read books on your smartphone, tablet, or e-reader. You can play tunes and watch movies on your music player, phone, or tablet. If you're going on a [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] trip, do you carry your phone and your laptop, your phone and your tablet, your phone and your e-reader, or just your phone? Some people will carry everything—see last year's Wall Street Journal profile of tech geeks who carry too many electronics when they travel. (Phil Libin, the CEO of the software company Evernote, carries a 26-pound backpack stuffed with computers, tablets, phones, cameras, batteries, and cables.) Most of us, though, are going to spend our time and money on just one or two of these devices. Now imagine it's 2016. Which gadgets are you taking along on your morning commute?
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