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Smoking All the Profits([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Forget the Marlboro man: China is the world’s cigarette king. The mainland produces—and consumes—more tobacco products than any other country in the world. The China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC), the state-run cash cow that holds an effective monopoly on the industry, is a source of good business for the party: in 2010, Big Tobacco paid 498.85 billion yuan (around $75 billion) in taxes to the Chinese government, according to the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration. More than 300 million Chinese adults smoke—among them more than half of all Chinese men. In 2009, the CNTC says [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it produced a whopping 2.3 trillion cigarettes.
By Melissa Korn [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Philip Morris International Inc.'s (PM) fourth-quarter profit jumped 15% on strong growth in its Asian markets and price hikes that offset declining volumes elsewhere.
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], The Altria Group Inc. (MO) spinoff, which sells cigarette brands such as Marlboro and L&M outside the U.S., has relied an increasing amount on emerging markets to fuel growth. Volume surged 24% in Asia in the most recent period, with particular gains in Indonesia [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Philippines and Korea. Those strong results helped push worldwide shipments up 3.1%. Volume in developed markets remain weak, though, and a slew of tax hikes are further denting sales.
Shipments in Japan tumbled 45.8% after an Oct. 1 tax increase [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and volumes in Pakistan, Greece, Romania and Ukraine were also affected by taxes. Meanwhile, volume rose in Mexico as smokers stocked up in anticipation of a steep new excise tax that kicked in earlier this year. [link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], The excise tax activity in 2010 "went beyond any reasonable expectation," Chairman and Chief Executive Louis Camilleri said. This year [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], he said taxes "appear to be manageable" and, except for a 50% hike in Mexico [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], are "benign." ([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
Philip Morris expects a 2011 per-share profit of $4.35 to $4.45, including a benefit from foreign exchange rates. Analysts most recently forecast per-share earnings of $4.38. [link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
Camilleri warned that the company's guidance may prove conservative as January shipments were better than anticipated. Still [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the volume impact from Japan's tax increase "remains the single largest question mark." Political upheaval in Tunisia [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Egypt and other parts of Northern Africa have also disrupted sales.
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Philip Morris reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.75 billion, or 96 cents a share, up from $1.52 billion, or 80 cents a share [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a year earlier. ([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
Revenue rose 4.7% to $17.81 billion. Excluding excise taxes, sales rose 4.8% to $7.04 billion [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], or 5.4% excluding currency fluctuations.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters most recently forecast per-share earnings of 96 cents on revenue of $7.27 billion.
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]Gross margin rose to 25.5% from 24.5%. Excluding excise taxes, currencies and acquisitions, operating margins rose 0.9 points to 42.6%.
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], While Asia posted strong results in the quarter, the other regional segments were sluggish. Volumes were down 5.4% in the European Union and 6% in Eastern Europe [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Middle East and Africa. Latin America and Canada posted a 2.4% increase. ([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
Meanwhile [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Philip Morris said it will continue with its aggressive stock repurchase plans, a strategy it's been using to keep shareholders happy in the face of earnings pressure. The company bought back 97.1 million shares for $5 billion in 2010 and expects to repurchase another $5 billion in stock this year.
Shares were down 0.7% to $59.13 in recent trading. The company's stock has gained 26% in the past year.
-By Melissa Korn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2271; [url=mailto:melissa.korn@dowjones.com]melissa.korn@dowjones.com[/url]
-[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Drew FitzGerald contributed to this story
But all this puffing is sparking serious public-health questions, and experts are now questioning if short-term profits will soon be outweighed by long-term health costs to the state. The World Lung Foundation (WLF) estimates a million people will die from tobacco-related illness in China this year, a toll that’s expected to double by 2020. So far there’s been little oversight of the industry: the Monopoly is, in essence, responsible for tobacco-control efforts. As the WLF’s Dr. Judith Mackay says, it’s been “a bit like putting a fox in charge of a chicken coop.”[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
No longer. Along with a team of researchers, Yang Gonghuan, the deputy director-general of China’s Center for Disease Control, has published a new report laying out how tobacco is a big drag on the country. Profits from producing cigarettes will fall far short of the eventual health costs of smoking-related illnesses, says Gonghuan. By the report’s estimation [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], cigarette-industry revenue accounts for some 6.7 percent of Beijing’s income. By contrast, the report states that tobacco “overall poses a loss rather than a benefit to China,” and other research puts estimated costs from tobacco at about 25 percent more than the revenue generated by the industry.
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Experts say the report falls in line with a fledgling awareness of the dangers of tobacco across the country. But for now [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], deterrents like putting pictorial warnings on cigarette packs—which is working to curb smoking in Latin America—are a long way off. The public-health question for Beijing, then, is whether cashing in on tobacco now will bankroll the hospital beds that will have to be bought later.([link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
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